RU Ping,NI Xiaotian,XU Wenyi,et al.Development of a nomogram prediction model for preterm birth in singleton pregnancies without history of spontaneous preterm birth[J].Journal of Tongji University(Medical Science),2024,45(6):884-890. [点击复制]
(Department of Obstetrics, Shanghai East Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai 200123, China;Department of Obstetrics, Wuxi Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, School of Medicine, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214002, Jiangsu Province, China;Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200336, China;Clinical Research Center, Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai 201204, China)
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo develop a prediction model of preterm birth for singleton pregnancies without history of spontaneous preterm birth.
MethodsThe clinical characteristics, pregnancy complications, and pregnancy outcomes of a cohort of singleton pregnancies with no history of spontaneous preterm birth who delivered at three tertiary hospitals from January 2021 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. A multivariate regression model was used to construct a prediction nomogram model. The prediction model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve analysis and calibration plots.
ResultsA total of 11371 singleton pregnancies without a history of spontaneous preterm birth were included in the study. Seven predictive factors were identified, including pre-pregnancy BMI, parity, assisted reproductive technology pregnancy, history of cervical surgery, preeclampsia, preterm premature rupture of membranes, and gestational diabetes. The area under the curve(AUC) of the model was 0.693(95%CI: 0.663-0.722). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and decision curve analysis(DCA) for binary variables indicated good model calibration. The clinical impact curve(CIC) demonstrated high clinical prediction efficiency of the model.
ConclusionA prediction model of preterm birth has been developed in this study, which may serve as a tool for predicting preterm birth in singleton pregnancies with no history of spontaneous preterm birth, however, further validation is needed before clinical application and generalization.
